ACUS02 KWNS 290553
SWODY2
SPC AC 290552

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN/CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday, centered
on central Texas to eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Large
hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes will be possible with
thunderstorm activity.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough is expected to move eastward across the Southern
Plains on Wednesday, with multiple rounds of thunderstorm activity
possible across portions of Texas and Oklahoma. At the start of the
period Wednesday morning, convection should be ongoing across
western Oklahoma into northern Texas near the surface low. This
activity will continue to track eastward through the period and
intensify through the afternoon/evening, as the surface low moves
north and eastward. Additional thunderstorm development is expected
along the southern fringe near the dryline in north-central Texas.

A warm front extending across portions of Missouri, southern
Indiana, southern Illinois into northern Kentucky may be the focus
of strong to severe thunderstorm development Wednesday afternoon.

...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
The aforementioned thunderstorm activity early in the period
Wednesday morning is expected to intensify through the afternoon, as
daytime heating and increasing moisture leads to destabilization
downstream in the warm sector. By the afternoon, the dryline across
central Texas will be the focus of new development as upper level
forcing overspreads the region. With multiple rounds of convection
expected across the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and north
Texas in the D1 period, there is some uncertainty on where all the
mesoscale features will be as this occurs. Nonetheless, it appears
that ahead of the dryline the environment will be characterized by
steep lapse rates, modest MLCAPE, and strong deep layer shear. This
will support potential for a few supercells initially capable of
very large hail. Should the mode remain favorable, the tornado risk
will increase through the afternoon as the low-level jet strengthens
and low-level curvature of hodographs increases. A more favorable
corridor for tornadoes may exist near the Red River across
southeastern Oklahoma/northern Texas. Upscale growth will promote
potential for damaging wind, especially across eastern Oklahoma into
western Arkansas. However, shear will also support potential for
line embedded circulations.

Additional thunderstorms may re-develop further west across the
Texas Panhandle Wednesday afternoon, with potential for large hail.
At this time, it is uncertain how much recovery can happen from
multiple rounds of convection late D1 into D2 across this region.

...Lower MO/OH Valleys...
Along the warm front from southern Indiana into southern Illinois
and northern Kentucky, thunderstorm development is possible
Wednesday afternoon. Forcing remains weaker across this region, with
the shortwave back in the southern Plains. However, profiles would
be supportive of a supercell or two in this region, given the plume
of steep low to mid-level lapse rates, buoyancy, and sufficient
shear. These would be capable of hail, severe wind, and potentially
a tornado. For now, some uncertainty on coverage keeps probabilities
low.

..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/29/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 300601
SWODY2
SPC AC 300559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL TEXAS
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from
central Texas into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys northward to the
Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to
severe winds and hail.

...Synopsis...
A broad region of southwesterly flow aloft will extend across the
lower Mississippi River Valley into the Great Lakes region Thursday,
with a mid-level vort max forecast to be moving eastward across the
Ozarks toward the Ohio Valley. Weak low pressure initially progged
to reside over the Missouri vicinity will gradually deepen as it
shifts east-northeastward into the Midwest through the day before
moving across Lower Michigan and into Ontario overnight. A trailing
cold front is forecast to shift gradually southeastward across the
Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley/southern Plains through the period.

...Lower Great Lakes southwestward to Texas...
Thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing near the front at the
edge of the Marginal Risk at the beginning of D2/Thursday. Widely
scattered thunderstorm activity is expected by the late
morning/afternoon along and ahead of the front. Flow at 850 mb will
be strongest from the mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley.
Sufficient instability will extend far enough northward to the Great
Lakes region to support a risk for damaging wind. Across the lower
Mississippi Valley, flow will be weaker but thunderstorms are
expected to re-develop by the afternoon. Given steep lapse rates,
sufficient shear, and moderate CAPE, the potential for damaging
winds will be possible.

Across central Texas, forcing for ascent will be weaker but a few
supercells may develop near the dryline. Guidance indicates the
dryline may surge eastward by the late afternoon. Though the flow is
weak, around 25-30 kts of deep layer flow across the dryline should
be sufficient to organize storms. The air mass ahead of the dryline
will be characterized by MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg and a plume of
steep low to mid-level lapse rates, and minimal MLCIN. Supercells in
this regime would be capable of large to very large hail.

...Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma...
Elevated thunderstorms may develop across portions of the
Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle late in the D2/Thursday period. These would
likely be initially elevated but would pose some risk for hail and
damaging wind. Consensus is that this would likely consolidate into
an MCS and move across western Oklahoma through the end of the
period, with the damaging wind risk continuing through the end of
the D2 period.

..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/30/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 010600
SWODY2
SPC AC 010558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TRANS
PECOS TO EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from the
Northeast, across the Ohio, Tennessee, and Lower Mississippi Valleys
and into Texas on Friday. The greatest threat for large hail will be
from the Trans Pecos to East Texas.

...Synopsis...
A surface low will move from Ontario into northern Quebec on Friday
with a trailing front stalling from the Great Lakes to the Ozarks to
West Texas. This front will start to accelerate southeast during the
late afternoon/evening as a positively tilted mid-level trough
amplifies and moves south across the Plains. Scattered strong to
severe storms are forecast along this frontal zone Friday
afternoon/evening.

...Trans Pecos to East Texas...
Moderate instability is forecast south of a frontal zone across
central Texas Friday afternoon. As the mid-level trough advances
southward through the Plains, mid-level temperatures will cool and
ascent will overspread this frontal zone. Therefore, as the airmass
becomes uncapped, scattered thunderstorms should develop along the
front. 35 to 40 knots of effective shear should be sufficient for
supercells with a primary hazard of large hail.

...Mid Mississippi Valley to the eastern Great Lakes...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the front
from Louisiana to western New York on Friday afternoon. The best
flow will be across Kentucky and Ohio and into Pennsylvania and New
York, but heating/destabilization becomes more questionable that far
north. The best overlap of mid-level flow and richer low-level
moisture will be across the Mid-Mississippi Valley. However, cloud
cover associated with an MCS which is expected to be ongoing at the
beginning of the period across Texas and Arkansas will limit heating
and thus destabilization. Better instability will be likely where
heating can occur to the south of the more extensive cloud cover,
but shear/forcing becomes weaker farther south and east. Therefore,
within the broad marginal risk from western New York to Louisiana
there will likely be one or more corridors with a greater threat for
severe storms, but those areas will be mesoscale in nature and
highly dependent on Day 1 convection. Therefore, no higher
probabilities have been added at this time.

..Bentley.. 05/01/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 040551
SWODY2
SPC AC 040549

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern High Plains into
parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Large to very
large hail and severe winds are the primary threats. Additional
strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida coast
and from northeast North Carolina to the Lake Erie vicinity.

...Synopsis...
Two upper-level lows, one in the Ohio Valley and the other in the
Southwest, will make slow eastward progress on Monday. A cold front
from the Upper Ohio Valley southward into the Mid-Atlantic and
central Florida will be a focus for convection during the afternoon.
In the southern High Plains, a surface trough/dryline will form and
promote afternoon thunderstorms as greater moisture moves westward
into the region.

...Southern High Plains into Central Texas...
As the upper low advances toward the region late Sunday into Monday,
some convection is possible from northeast New Mexico into the Texas
Panhandle and western Oklahoma. Low cloud cover is also expected
along with the moisture returning northwest across Texas into
eastern New Mexico. While these will be complicating factors in the
forecast, the approach of the upper low and embedded perturbations
will encourage the development of a dryline from far eastern New
Mexico into the Trans-Pecos. Strong heating along this dryline,
where upper 50s to mid 60s dewpoints will reside, will drive storm
development during the afternoon. Hodographs will initially be
rather straight. Splitting supercells capable of large/very-large
hail and severe winds are probable. During the early evening, the
low-level jet will strengthen. Moisture return will increase and
low-level hodographs will become larger. A zone of greater tornado
potential is evident from southern portions of the South Plains into
the northern Permian Basin, particularly for supercells lasting into
the early evening.

The evolution of convection becomes a bit more uncertain into the
later evening. The ramp up in the low-level jet should eventually
promote upscale growth into a cluster/MCS. This activity could
persist into parts of central Texas. Model guidance continues to
differ on the placement of this feature. The exact track will depend
largely on how far north the greater moisture is able to advect.
Severe winds would be the primary threat with these storms, though
low-level shear would also support some tornado risk even with a
linear mode. During the overnight and into Tuesday morning, the
greatest mid-level height falls will occur in the southern High
Plains. An additional cluster/MCS on the retreating dryline. How
severe this activity will be is unclear given the time of day and
the preceding convection.

...Florida...
With cold temperatures aloft (-10 to -12 C) remaining over the
Peninsula and stronger surface heating expected to occur, a few
strong to severe storms will again be possible along the eastern sea
breeze boundary. 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and 25-35 kts of effective
shear (stronger to the north) will promote supercell structures
capable of large hail and damaging winds. A brief tornado would be
possible with storms that interact favorably with the sea breeze boundary.

...Mid-Atlantic into Upper Ohio Valley...
While some precipitation and cloud cover may occur early Monday
morning, models continue to show agreement that pockets of surface
heating will promote around 1000 J/kg by the afternoon. Enhanced
mid-level winds around the Ohio Valley upper low will foster 40-45
kts of effective shear. Isolated large hail and strong/damaging
winds will be possible with the strongest storms.

..Wendt.. 05/04/2025

$$
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