ACUS01 KWNS 281251
SWODY1
SPC AC 281249

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND ARKLATEX...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms, with an isolated hail and severe wind threat,
are possible across parts of southern Oklahoma and northern Texas to
the Arklatex this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe
thunderstorms will also be possible across eastern Colorado and the
adjacent High Plains.

...Southern Oklahoma/North Texas to ArkLaTex...
Showers/thunderstorms are prevalent this morning across
northern/eastern Oklahoma into the Ozarks to the north-northeast of
a warm front. Within a belt of moderately strong northwesterly flow
aloft, a shortwave trough will continue to dig southeastward from
the south-central Plains toward the Ozarks by this evening. Related
dynamical response and the early day convection will shunt the front
southward later today, with ample heating/moderate destabilization
on the southwest flank of this boundary.

While mid-level temperatures are seasonally warm (-4C at 500 mb),
and lapse rates are not that steep, severe hail and damaging wind
gusts can be expected with the more robust convection as general intensification occurs by mid/late afternoon. A few initial
supercells may occur, and some tornado risk could also exist with
convection immediately along the boundary and east of the weak
surface front. Clustering/upscale-quasi-linear growth should occur
by early evening as storms progress southeastward and continue to
pose a damaging wind risk for a time this evening.

...Eastern Colorado and adjacent High Plains...
The large-scale pattern is not expected to change appreciably as
upper ridging will hold across the southern/central Rockies. While
mid-level flow is not that strong across Colorado, low-level upslope
flow is expected to contribute to scattered thunderstorm development
as boundary layer heats later this afternoon. This activity will
spread southeastward with an attendant risk for isolated severe hail
and gusty winds.

..Guyer/Kerr.. 08/28/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 051211
SWODY1
SPC AC 051209

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0709 AM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025

Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds, isolated severe hail, and a brief tornado
or two are possible from the Upper Ohio to Tennessee Valleys during
the late afternoon and evening.

...Upper OH to TN Valleys...
Water-vapor imagery shows a large gyre centered over Ontario and
cyclonic flow over much of eastern North America. A series of
mid-level disturbances/speed maxima will rotate through its base
during the Day-1 period, and there are two lead impulses over the
St. Lawrence Seaway and the Upper Great Lakes this morning. A
weaker impulse associated with convection early this morning over KS
will rapidly move east into the northern part of the OH Valley
through this evening and immediately ahead of a more notable
shortwave trough moving southeast from the Dakotas into the Great Lakes.

A cold front oriented mostly north-south over the Great Lakes from a
surface low will push east during the day, while the trailing
southern portion of the boundary that is west-east oriented,
gradually pushes south and eventually overtakes a residual frontal segment.

Heating ahead of the aforementioned low-amplitude impulse and
strengthening low-level convergence along the boundary will likely
yield scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms developing in the
late afternoon to early evening. Much of the stronger mid-level
flow will remain spatially displaced from the warm sector in the
post-frontal airmass except over the Upper OH Valley. Moderate
buoyancy will favor strong to severe multicells and some supercells
(where shear is stronger). Isolated severe gusts (55-70 mph) seem
probable which will result in scattered wind damage accompanying the
stronger thunderstorm cores and line segments. Models differ on the
character of mixing and hodograph size over the southeast OH/WV
portion of the Slight Risk, but low-tornado potential may be
greatest here compared to farther south/southwest over the TN
Valley. The severe threat will diminish towards late evening given
the extensive overturning and lack of stronger low-level flow/shear
to sustain the threat overnight.

...North TX to Mid-South...
An elongated mid-level thermal trough, characterized by 500-mb
temperatures of -10 to -12 C, will extend into north TX, well to the
south of a persistent vertically stacked cyclone over northern
Ontario. A copious amount of high cloud cover will tend to result
in high-level lapse rates becoming weaker during the period. Model
data implies a messy storm mode as isolated to locally scattered
storm coverage ensues during the late afternoon/evening. An
isolated wind/hail risk may accompany the stronger storms.

..Smith/Broyles.. 09/05/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 061230
SWODY1
SPC AC 061229

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0729 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern
Pennsylvania and New Jersey into New England this afternoon. The
primary hazards will be strong to severe gusts capable of wind
damage and a tornado or two.

...Northeast...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level shortwave
trough moving east-northeast across Lower MI and embedded within a
larger scale cyclonic flow field over eastern North America. This
mid-level disturbance will move into southeast Quebec by this
evening. A weak frontal wave is forecast to evolve near the
NY/MA/VT border by early afternoon as a cold front sharpens and
begins to push towards the coast. A relatively moist airmass is
evident in surface observations this morning with dewpoints in the
lower 70s along the southern New England coast with mid to upper 60s
farther inland.

Despite some low cloud cover, sufficient heating will promote
moderate destabilization by early afternoon. Convection will likely
focus along the wind shift/cold front with scattered to numerous
storms eventually developing by mid-late afternoon. Model guidance
shows 35-40 kt southwesterly 700-mb flow and forecast soundings show
hodographs enlarging in the vicinity of the weak low as it migrates north-northeast across portions of southern New England into
southern ME. Several supercells are possible and have introduced
5-percent tornado probabilities this outlook to highlight where the
greatest low-level mesocyclone threat (i.e., possibility for a
tornado or two) is forecast. Otherwise, strong to severe gusts
capable of wind damage are expected from both supercells and the
more organized/intense cores and line segments. As the disturbance
becomes displaced from the region by early evening and with the loss
of heating, the severe risk will likely diminish.

...Mid-Atlantic states into the Carolinas/GA...
Southern extension of stronger flow will gradually taper with south
extent from the Mid-Atlantic states into the Carolinas. However,
sufficient destabilization of a seasonably moist airmass will favor
widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms evolving into a few
bands of thunderstorms this afternoon. The primary risk with the
more intense thunderstorms will be strong to locally severe gusts
capable of wind damage. This activity will likely weaken by the
early evening.

..Smith/Broyles.. 09/06/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 081221
SWODY1
SPC AC 081219

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0719 AM CDT Mon Sep 08 2025

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated large to very large hail and severe gusts are forecast over
portions of southwestern Kansas, northwest Oklahoma, and the Texas
Panhandle late this afternoon into the evening.

...Central/Southern High Plains...
Morning water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough
moving east-southeast across the central High Plains. Scattered showers/thunderstorms are ongoing from northern KS into the
northeast TX Panhandle associated with low-level warm-air advection.
This convection will likely remain weak and slowly shift
east-southeast before largely diminishing 18-21z. As the
aforementioned disturbance moves into central KS by late afternoon,
a differential heating zone arcing northward in wake of the
convection will intersect with a moisture plume extending northward
from west TX into the TX/OK/KS border region.

Heating will contribute to a moderate to very unstable airmass
(2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) from the TX Panhandle into southwest KS.
Weak low-level convergence should prove instrumental in convective
initiation late this afternoon into the early evening. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms are probable with the locally highest risk
for severe in the northeast TX Panhandle into adjacent parts of
northwest OK and southwest KS. Model forecast hodographs are
elongated, which will favor supercells and hail growth given the
magnitude of buoyancy. Large to very large hail (1 to 3 inches in
diameter) is possible with the stronger storms. A brief tornado
cannot be ruled out during the early evening transition when
low-level shear increases. Severe gusts may also accompany the
stronger cores through much of the evening before this activity
diminishes 03-05z.

...Upper MS Valley Vicinity...
Northern stream short-wave trough is forecast to dig southeast
across southern MB/ND into the upper Red River region by early
evening. This should aid in the development and intensification of
a southwesterly LLJ forecast to overspread the Upper Midwest during
the period. Large-scale forcing favors elevated convection along
the nose of this jet, especially across the Arrowhead of MN/Lake
Superior. Relatively steeper lapse rates may permit a few robust
updrafts to evolve shortly after peak heating with an attendant risk
for isolated marginally severe hail.

...Central OR...
A mid- to upper-level shortwave trough located to the west of the
northern CA coast will move east-northeast into southwest OR by late
tonight. Heating coupled with large-scale ascent associated with
the disturbance will favor scattered thunderstorms developing this
afternoon near and east of the Cascades. Forecast soundings show
500-mb temperatures around -15 deg C and weak buoyancy. A couple of
the stronger updrafts may yield a near-severe hail threat (0.50-1.00
inch in diameter) for a few hours.

..Smith/Broyles.. 09/08/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 111206
SWODY1
SPC AC 111205

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0705 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025

Valid 111300Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over eastern Montana
into western North Dakota late this afternoon through the evening.
The primary hazards are severe gusts and large hail.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery shows a large cyclone over the West with a
downstream ridge over the Great Plains, and a trough centered over
the Lower Great Lakes. Southwesterly mid to high-level flow extends
from the base of the larger-scale western U.S. trough northeastward
through the Great Basin and into the northern Great Plains. A
mid-level disturbance implied in morning water-vapor imagery over
western WY, is forecast to move northeast into eastern MT/western ND
towards this evening.

In the low levels, a plume of seasonably rich moisture will protrude
northward from the central Plains into the Dakotas and eastern MT.
A lee trough will extend southward from a surface low over the
northern High Plains.

...Rockies into the northern Plains...
An ongoing cluster of weak thunderstorms associated with warm-air
advection near the ND/Manitoba border will continue to move
east-northeastward into southern Canada ahead of a pair of MCVs over
western ND/eastern MT. Diurnal heating over the higher terrain from
near the Four Corners northward into southern MT will favor
scattered thunderstorms developing during the midday into the early
afternoon. Storm coverage will probably increase further over the
central Rockies during the afternoon, with the stronger storms
capable of an isolated hail/wind threat. As the airmass
destabilizes over the plains, particularly across eastern MT within
the moist plume primarily north of the surface low, isolated to
scattered storms are forecast by mid to late afternoon. This
initial activity will probably develop near the MT/WY border with
upscale growth into a cluster possible during the evening.
Deep-layer shear supporting organized storm modes coupled with steep
lapse rates, will combine to aid in several stronger storms capable
of a hail/wind threat. The wind threat will probably continue into
ND during the evening within the terminus region of a 35-40 kt
southerly LLJ. A gradual transition to increasingly elevated
convection is expected late as convective inhibition increases and
the overall severe risk lessens.

..Smith/Broyles.. 09/11/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 121641
SWODY1
SPC AC 121639

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025

Valid 121630Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms will be possible today across the Four
Corners area and central Rockies, with an increasing risk for severe
storms into late afternoon and tonight across the northern Plains.

...Four Corners Region/central Rockies...
Ahead of the prominent upper trough centered over the Great Basin
and Lower Colorado River Valley, a lead mid-level impulse and
related height falls and a strengthening of cyclonic flow aloft will
influence the region. Cooling mid-level temperatures and a modestly
warming boundary layer will further steepen lapse rates diurnally,
with strong to severe storms expected to further develop into the
afternoon. Relatively strong flow aloft with 40+ kt effective shear
will support some supercell structures, with a related enhanced
potential for severe hail, aside from locally gusty thunderstorm
winds. More severe-favorable ingredients and a somewhat higher
potential for severe storms appears to exist across the Four Corners
vicinity including northwest New Mexico across western Colorado
through the afternoon.

...Northern Plains including Eastern Montana/western Dakotas...
Thunderstorm development/intensification is expected by late
afternoon, initially on an isolated basis across central/eastern
portions of Montana and Wyoming. Cooling mid-level temperatures and
surface dew points in the 50s F will contribute to 500-1000 J/kg
MLCAPE. Southwesterly deep-layer shear averaging 20-35 kt will be
favorable for isolated storms with hail potential. Storm coverage
should steadily increase into the evening toward the western
Dakotas, aided by the arriving influence of greater forcing for
ascent as located over the central Rockies early today. Hail
potential will become more common this evening, with localized
severe wind potential also modestly increasing. Strong/locally
severe storms will potentially persist overnight across the western
and central Dakotas.

...Northern/central Minnesota to northwest Wisconsin...
Very isolated elevated severe storms, with hail as the most probable
hazard, may continue east-southeastward today, semi-focused by
elevated moisture transport well to the north of a warm front.

..Guyer/Jirak.. 09/12/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 122002
SWODY1
SPC AC 122000

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025

Valid 122000Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS VICINITY AND ALSO ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms remain possible this afternoon across the
Four Corners area and central Rockies, with an increasing risk for
severe storms into late afternoon and tonight across the northern Plains.

...Four Corners vicinity into the Southwest...
The Slight Risk has been expanded westward into parts of
southeast/east-central UT, where favorable deep-layer shear and
modest but sufficient instability remains in place this afternoon.
Occasional small supercells will continue to be possible, with a
threat of hail and localized strong/severe gusts. See MCD 2066 for
more details.

The Marginal Risk has been expanded slightly westward across
southeast AZ, based on trends on visible satellite. The 18Z TUS
depicted a favorable conditional environment for severe storms, with
moderate MLCAPE and deep-layer shear. While the threat should
generally remain rather isolated, a supercell or two will be
possible, with an attendant threat of hail and localized severe
gusts. See MCD 2065 for more information.

...Northern High Plains vicinity...
Only modest adjustments have been made to the Marginal Risk across
the northern High Plains vicinity, with no changes to the Slight
Risk. An isolated threat for hail and strong/severe gusts may
develop later this afternoon, with some increase in coverage of the
severe threat expected into this evening. See MCD 2067 and the
previous discussion below for more details.

...East-central MN into northwest WI...
Much of the Marginal Risk across MN and northwest WI has been
removed. An earlier cluster of storms has generally weakened this
afternoon across east-central MN, though modestly steep midlevel
lapse rates and relatively favorable effective shear could still
support a threat for small to near-severe hail and locally gusty
winds as these storms move into northwest WI. Additional elevated
convection may develop later tonight across the same general region,
but severe potential with the later storms appears limited at this time.

..Dean.. 09/12/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025/

...Four Corners Region/central Rockies...
Ahead of the prominent upper trough centered over the Great Basin
and Lower Colorado River Valley, a lead mid-level impulse and
related height falls and a strengthening of cyclonic flow aloft will
influence the region. Cooling mid-level temperatures and a modestly
warming boundary layer will further steepen lapse rates diurnally,
with strong to severe storms expected to further develop into the
afternoon. Relatively strong flow aloft with 40+ kt effective shear
will support some supercell structures, with a related enhanced
potential for severe hail, aside from locally gusty thunderstorm
winds. More severe-favorable ingredients and a somewhat higher
potential for severe storms appears to exist across the Four Corners
vicinity including northwest New Mexico across western Colorado
through the afternoon.

...Northern Plains including Eastern Montana/western Dakotas...
Thunderstorm development/intensification is expected by late
afternoon, initially on an isolated basis across central/eastern
portions of Montana and Wyoming. Cooling mid-level temperatures and
surface dew points in the 50s F will contribute to 500-1000 J/kg
MLCAPE. Southwesterly deep-layer shear averaging 20-35 kt will be
favorable for isolated storms with hail potential. Storm coverage
should steadily increase into the evening toward the western
Dakotas, aided by the arriving influence of greater forcing for
ascent as located over the central Rockies early today. Hail
potential will become more common this evening, with localized
severe wind potential also modestly increasing. Strong/locally
severe storms will potentially persist overnight across the western
and central Dakotas.

...Northern/central Minnesota to northwest Wisconsin...
Very isolated elevated severe storms, with hail as the most probable
hazard, may continue east-southeastward today, semi-focused by
elevated moisture transport well to the north of a warm front.

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 141242
SWODY1
SPC AC 141240

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across a broad portion of
the Great Plains this afternoon to early evening. A more
concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes is evident over parts of
the Dakotas and for large hail along the Nebraska-Kansas border.

...Dakotas/Western Minnesota...
Within a meridional mid-level flow regime, a surface low is forecast
to lift north across the central Dakotas this afternoon/evening. A
low-level jet will strengthen across the eastern Dakotas towards
evening, while moist easterly surface flow will exist north of the
low. These processes will result in a relatively confined corridor
of enhanced SRH lifting north from north-central SD into central ND
later today. In the wake of ongoing precipitation this morning,
renewed thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across
the Dakotas along a cold front as ascent with the consolidating and increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough intensifies. Although
the primary risks will be isolated strong/severe gusts and hail with
multicell or transient supercell structures, storms near the
aforementioned surface low/Slight Risk could plausibly acquire
sufficient low-level rotation resulting in some tornado potential.
Overall intensities should diminish later this evening.

...Central Great Plains...
In the wake of overnight storms, boundary-layer heating of a
seasonably moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate-strong
buoyancy east of a cold front this afternoon. Although stronger wind fields/greater shear will be displaced to the east, sufficient
overlap is expected, with the potential for both multicell and
supercell characteristics resulting in severe hail/wind potential. A
confined plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates (in excess of 7 deg
C/km) southeast of the consolidating trough will promote a more
concentrated risk for severe hail, centered near the NE/KS border
Slight Risk area.

...Southern High Plains...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon
within a moderate-strongly buoyant air mass amid modest westerly
cloud-bearing layer shear. Both multicell and brief supercell
structures are possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and
hail, however warmer mid-level temperatures south of the upper
trough should tend to temper overall coverage.

...Mid-South/Mid-MS Valley...
Ample buoyancy along and southwest of a warm front should aid in a
few strong gusts and small hail with scattered late afternoon
storms. Deep-layer shear will remain rather weak within the
mid-level ridge, suggesting a predominant pulse mode, supporting a
minimal threat for organized severe storms.

..Bunting/Broyles.. 09/14/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 161234
SWODY1
SPC AC 161233

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0733 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025

Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST CO...WESTERN/CENTRAL NE...AND EXTREME NORTHWEST KS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into
early evening across a portion of the central Great Plains. Large
hail, severe gusts, and a tornado or two may occur.

...Synopsis...
Early morning satellite imagery shows a fairly amplified upper
pattern across CONUS, consisting of two ridge/trough pairs. The
westernmost pair features ridging that extends from just off the
central CA coast north through southern BC and a shortwave trough
that extends from central MT into northeast NV/northwest UT. The
eastern most pair features ridging from the southern Plains through
the Upper Great Lakes and a modest cyclone centered over central NC.
Despite this amplified upper pattern, flow is generally modest, with
the strongest flow extending through the base of the western
shortwave from northern UT into eastern WY.

The surface analysis reveals a relatively nondescript surface
pattern free of any sharp gradients or notable features, aside from
a weak low just off the northeast NC coast. Moderate moisture (i.e.
mid/upper 60s dewpoints) does extend from the southern Plains
through the Lower MO Valley into southern IA.

...Central High Plains into the Central Plains ...
The western shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis is forecast
to progress slowly eastward throughout the day, evolving towards a
more closed mid/upper level circulation as it does. Eastern
periphery of ascent associated with this shortwave will impinge on
the western periphery of the better low-level moisture and buoyancy,
resulting in scattered to numerous thunderstorms from eastern WY/CO
into western NE/KS. The best buoyancy across the region will likely
reside from far northeast CO into central NE where low to mid 60s
dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will support MLCAPE
around 2000-2500 J/kg. Low-level convergence along a weak cold front
is anticipated in this area as well. The resulting combination of
lift, instability, and modest shear (i.e. around 35 kt of effective
bulk shear) will support strong to severe storms. Large hail appears
to be the most prominent hazard, but some clustering could lead to a
few strong gusts as well. Presence of a surface low and potential
backed low-level flow will result in a low-probability tornado risk
as well.

...Eastern SD to northeast MN...
Steep lapse rates atop moderate low-level moisture will support
moderate to strong buoyancy along a weak front zone forecast to
extend from eastern SD into north-central MN this afternoon.
Low-level convergence along the front will be modest, with warm low
to mid-level temperatures (and resultant capping) likely keeping
storm coverage isolated. Mid-level flow will be modest across most
of the region, but the strong buoyancy could still result in an
isolated threat for severe hail and damaging winds with any storms
that develop. A relatively higher severe potential exists across
northeast NM, where stronger mid-level flow through southern
peripheral of a shortwave trough moving over far northwest Ontario
will be in place this evening.

...VA Tidewater and far northeast NC...
A weak cyclone east of the Outer Banks is progged to drift
northwestward today, reaching the NC/VA border area by this
afternoon. Low-level flow enhancement through its northwest
periphery will promote potential for strong to marginally severe
gusts with any sustained convection. However, the more buoyant air
is expected to remain offshore and displaced east of this stronger
low-level flow, thermodynamically limiting the spatial extent of any
severe threat. Meager surface-based instability may glance the coast
from later this morning through the afternoon before low-level wind
fields subside and the severe risk becomes negligible.

..Mosier/Bentley.. 09/16/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 171255
SWODY1
SPC AC 171254

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025

Valid 171300Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
CO...NORTHEAST NM...AND THE WESTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly during late
afternoon to mid-evening, across parts of the south-central High and
Great Plains. The most likely corridor is from the Raton Mesa into
the western Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, where large hail, severe
gusts, and a brief tornado are possible.

...Synopsis...
Early morning satellite imagery shows a broad cyclone centered over
WY and another more defined cyclone over the Mid-Atlantic. Modest
ridging exists between these cyclones from the southern Plains
through the Mid MS Valley and into the Upper Great Lakes. The
eastern cyclone is forecast to devolve into an open wave throughout
the day while gradually lifting northeastward. Several shortwave
troughs are forecast to rotate around the western cyclone while it
shifts eastward into more of NE/SD and deepens slightly.

Recent surface analysis reveals a weak front extending from a low
over the northern TX Panhandle north-northeastward to another weak
low over northwest KS and then more northeastward across central NE
into southwest MN. Portion of this front across KS and NE is
forecast to slowly push eastward/southeastward today while
consolidation into a more define and deeper surface low occurs
across northeast NE and southeast SD.

...South-central High Plains...
The shortwave trough currently rotating southward through western WY
is forecast to continue south/south-southeastward today. Lift
preceding this shortwave will contribute to thunderstorm development
within the buoyant post-frontal airmass across southeast CO and
northeast NM (in the Raton Mesa vicinity) during the late
afternoon/early evening. Slightly stronger mid-level flow will
accompany this shortwave as well, resulting in moderate deep-layer
vertical shear. Buoyancy will be modest, with the stronger buoyancy
anticipated ahead of the cold front, but the combination of buoyancy
and shear over the region should still be sufficient for organized
updrafts capable of large hail and damaging gusts. There is some
potential for this activity to interact with the western portion of
the cold front that is expected to arc back west/northwest across
the TX/OK Panhandles into far northeast NM/southeast CO. If this
occurs, the easterly surface winds and increased vorticity along the
boundary could result in a localized area of low-probability tornado risk.

...Southeast NE...Central/Eastern KS...Northwest OK...Eastern TX
Panhandle...

Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing along and ahead of the cold
front extending across the region. At least one MCV is noted within
this precipitation over far north-central KS. Cloud cover associated
with this precipitation will likely delay heating across much of KS
and NE, leading to some uncertainty whether the airmass will
destabilize ahead of the cold front later this afternoon.
Destabilization looks more probable from central KS across the
eastern TX Panhandle and northeast OK. This entire region will be on
the eastern periphery of the stronger mid-level flow, with the
modest shear supportive of some strong to severe storms capable of
damaging gusts and isolated hail in areas where the airmass destabilizes.

...IA and southern MN...
Forcing for ascent is expected to spread across the region from the
southwest as a shortwave trough rotates through the broader
troughing over the northern/central Plains. Like areas farther
southwest, cloud cover and limited diurnal heating results in
uncertainty regarding airmass destabilization. Even so, some
guidance shows strong heating, deep mixing, and destabilization
ahead of the approaching shortwave. This could result in some
high-based storm capable of damaging downbursts. However, the
overall conditionality of this scenario precludes introducing any
severe probabilities with this outlook.

..Mosier/Bentley.. 09/17/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 211246
SWODY1
SPC AC 211245

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

Valid 211300Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Large hail may occur with supercells that develop this afternoon
across parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma. Isolated strong
to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening
across a broad portion of the southern Plains into the Ozarks, mid
Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, and Great Lakes, and also from the
mid Missouri Valley into southern Minnesota and northern Iowa.

...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley...
Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across parts of western/central OK and western north TX in association with a weak
MCV and modest low-level warm/moist advection. Convectively
reinforced outflow from this morning activity should be draped
along/near the Red River this afternoon, with a rich low-level
moisture present to its south. Northwesterly mid/upper-level flow
should gradually strengthen through the day across north TX/southern
OK as a weak mid-level perturbation moves southeastward from the southern/central High Plains. A favorable combination of moderate
instability aided by modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates and
daytime heating, along with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear, will
likely prove favorable for thunderstorm organization. Most guidance
suggests multiple thunderstorms will develop and become
supercellular this afternoon across parts of north TX and southern
OK. Scattered severe hail should be the main threat with this
convection as it spreads southeastward through the early evening.
Strengthening MLCIN with time this evening should result in a
weakening trend as this activity approaches the DFW metroplex, but
isolated large hail and gusty winds will remain possible until
convection dissipates. Given increased confidence in supercells
developing, have added a focused Slight Risk for large hail with
this update.

Weak mid-level troughing with multiple embedded perturbations will
move eastward today across the central Plains into the Ozarks and
mid MS Valley. One notable MCV with ongoing convection is also noted
this morning across central KS. Filtered diurnal heating should aid
in the development of weak to locally moderate instability this
afternoon along/south of a front that should be draped across
northern KS/MO. As modest large-scale ascent overspreads the warm
sector, at least scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop
this afternoon in a weakly sheared environment, with modest
enhancement provided by the eastward-moving MCV across MO. Isolated
hail and damaging winds may occur with the stronger cores, with some
potential for eventual clustering towards the MS River by early
evening.

...Midwest/Great Lakes...
A broad zone of modest (20-30 kt) west-southwesterly mid-level flow
will be maintained today over much of the Midwest/Great Lakes, on
the southeast periphery of weak upper troughing over the Upper
Midwest. Recent visible satellite imagery across these regions show
generally widespread cloudiness, which may hinder diurnal
destabilization to some extent. Mid-level lapse rates are also
expected to remain rather poor (reference ILX/ILN/DTX observed 12Z
soundings). Even with these thermodynamic limitations, it still
appears possible that isolated damaging winds could occur with any thunderstorms that can develop this afternoon and spread generally east-northeastward. This activity should quickly weaken this evening
with the loss of daytime heating.

...Mid Missouri Valley into Southern Minnesota/Northern Iowa...
A compact mid/upper-level low will move southeastward from eastern
ND into MN today. This low and attendant shortwave trough may aid in
the development of isolated to widely scattered storms by early
evening from southwest MN into adjacent southeast SD, northeast NE,
and northwest IA, in the vicinity of a weak surface boundary. Cool
temperatures aloft, weak to moderate instability, and effective bulk
shear around 25-35 kt should support multicells and perhaps a couple
splitting supercells. Hail is expected to the primary severe hazard
with any thunderstorms that can be sustained, but confidence in this
occurring before this evening is low.

..Gleason/Grams.. 09/21/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 221242
SWODY1
SPC AC 221240

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025

Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...LOWER/MID MISSOURI VALLEY...AND OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into
tonight across portions of the southern/central Plains, lower/mid
Missouri Valley, and Ohio Valley. Large hail and severe/damaging
winds should be the main threats.

...Synopsis...
Weak upper troughing over the Upper Midwest is forecast to drift
slowly eastward today across the upper Great Lakes, while upper
ridging remains centered over Mexico and south TX. In between these
two features, a broad zone of modestly enhanced west-northwesterly
mid-level flow will persist through the period. Multiple
low-amplitude mid-level perturbations should aid convective
development today and tonight across portions of the
southern/central Plains into the mid MO Valley and Upper Midwest,
and across parts of the TN/OH Valleys into the lower Great Lakes.

...Southern/Central Plains...
With a stout cap in place (reference 12Z DDC observed sounding) and
weak large-scale ascent anticipated through much of the afternoon,
robust thunderstorm development across the southern/central Plains
will likely be delayed until early evening as a southerly low-level
jet strengthens. Modest low-level moist advection will occur to the
east of a weak lee trough and surface low over the central High
Plains this afternoon, with generally mid 60s to low 70s dewpoints
forecast across much of KS/OK. Diurnal heating of this moist airmass
will support a corridor of moderate to locally strong instability
extending from western KS southeastward into OK.

It still appears probable that ascent associated with a southerly
low-level jet will be needed to overcome the cap this evening, with
most high-resolution guidance suggesting thunderstorm initiation
occurring around 00-02Z or later. Even though westerly mid-level
winds are not expected to be overly strong, sufficient deep-layer
shear will be present to support organized updrafts. Current
expectations are for initial development to pose some hail threat,
with a couple of supercells possible. With time, scattered
severe/damaging winds should become the main risk as convection
grows upscale into a bowing cluster across western/south-central KS.
This severe threat may continue overnight into parts of
western/northern OK, with enhanced low-level shear potentially
supporting a brief embedded tornado. The southern extent of the
Marginal/Slight Risks across the southern Plains have been trimmed
based on latest guidance trends.

...Lower/Mid Missouri Valley into the Upper Midwest...
Thunderstorms ongoing this morning across far southeast MN into
western WI remained sub-severe overnight. Still, they may pose an
isolated hail/wind risk through the morning as they move eastward
across WI amid a destabilizing airmass. Overall confidence in the
development and evolution of convection from eastern NE into the
Upper Midwest today remains fairly low, as stronger ascent aloft
associated with the upper trough over the upper Great Lakes will
tend to remain displaced to the north of the surface warm sector.
Even so, additional convection should form along a front in northern
IA this afternoon/evening. With cool temperatures aloft and modestly
steepened mid-level lapse rates, this activity could pose a threat
for mainly severe hail given gradually strengthening westerly winds
with height through mid/upper levels. Other thunderstorms may form
late this afternoon or early evening across eastern NE and vicinity.
Greater instability should be present across this region compared to
locations farther north, along with enough deep-layer shear to
support some updraft organization. An initial hail threat with this
activity should transition to more of a wind risk with time this
evening as clustering occurs.

...Tennessee/Ohio Valleys to the Lower Great Lakes...
A shortwave trough associated with ongoing convection over the
Mid-South/lower OH Valley this morning will translate northeastward
today across much of the OH Valley. Modestly enhanced southwesterly low/mid-level winds will exist this afternoon over this region, with
20-30 kt of deep-layer shear supporting mainly loosely organized
multicells. Multiple clusters should develop and gradually
strengthen through the afternoon as they spread northeastward across
a weakly unstable airmass. Even though poor lapse rates aloft are
expected, somewhat steepened low-level lapse rates via filtered
daytime heating should still promote some risk for isolated to
scattered damaging winds with these clusters. Most guidance shows a
greater concentration of strong convection across parts of
central/eastern KY into OH and western WV this afternoon/early
evening, in close proximity to the mid-level shortwave trough. A
Slight Risk has been included across this area given increased
confidence in a corridor of scattered damaging wind potential.

...Far Eastern Arizona into New Mexico...
Moisture remains limited this morning across eastern AZ and much of southern/central NM, with surface dewpoints generally ranging from
the 40s to mid 50s. Westerly mid/upper-level flow across this region
is expected to gradually strengthen through the day as an upper
trough/low digs southward from the northern Rockies across the Great
Basin and towards the Four Corners region by late tonight. A weak
perturbation embedded within the mid-level westerly flow may aid
initial convective development this afternoon across the higher
terrain of east-central AZ and vicinity. This activity will spread
eastward across much of central NM through the remainder of the
afternoon and into the evening. While instability will likely remain
weak owing to limited low-level moisture, steepened low-level lapse
rates with daytime heating and moderate to strong deep-layer shear
should promote outflow-dominant convection with an isolated threat
for strong to severe wind gusts.

..Gleason/Grams.. 09/22/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 230600
SWODY1
SPC AC 230559

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OZARKS TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are possible from the southern Plains to the Mid
Mississippi Valley today and tonight. Supercells capable of all
severe hazards are possible mainly from eastern Oklahoma into the
Ozarks. Additional isolated severe storms with damaging gusts are
possible over the Mid Atlantic.

...Eastern Oklahoma into the Ozarks and northeast Texas...
A positive tilt large-scale trough will amplify over the southern
Rockies and High Plains today, as several small-sale features
embedded within the stronger westerly flow pass across KS/OK, over
the Ozark Plateau and into the mid MS Valley today and tonight.
Accompanying the lead shortwave, a 40-50 kt mid-level jet will aide
in surface cyclogenesis along a southward moving cold front across
the KS/OK border. Near the surface low, an early morning MCS will
likely be moving into northwest AR and southwest MO ahead of a 30-40
kt low-level jet. Isolated damaging winds and perhaps some hail will
be possible with this initial activity. Some resurgence is possible
through the morning along the AR/MO border with diurnal
destabilization, especially along the southern flank. Regardless,
outflow from the morning convection will likely develop into an
east-west oriented effective boundary intersecting with the
developing surface low from the AR/MO border region into eastern OK.

As the shortwave trough approaches, robust destabilization is
expected over much of the warm sector owing to heating amidst 70s F
surface dewpoints. Afternoon MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg should support
rapid thunderstorm development along the per-frontal surface
trough/wind shift and near the effective boundary. Semi-discrete
supercells are expected with a continued 30+ kt southwesterly
low-level jet helping to expand hodographs. Damaging gusts and some
hail (occasional 2+ inch) are possible with initial storms from
eastern OK into northeast TX where low-level flow is more veered and
lapse rates are steeper. Tornado potential (conditionally
significant) is likely to be maximized near the effective triple
point and modifying outflow boundary from northeastern OK into
western AR. Here, backed low-level flow, ESRH of 200-300 m2/s2 and
the potential for higher low-level buoyancy could support locally
stronger low-level mesocyclones. Higher tornado probabilities may be
needed as confidence in final boundary positioning and
destabilization, post MCS, becomes more clear.

Upscale growth into one or more clusters is expected into the early
overnight hours across eastern AR into the Mid MS Valley. Some risk
for damaging winds and perhaps an embedded tornado or two may
persist. However, increasingly strong low-level warm advection ahead
of the deepening surface low should support widespread thunderstorm
development which may limit instability.

...Mid Atlantic...
Downstream of a broad mid-level trough, widely scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop by early afternoon within a moist/moderately unstable air mass east of the central Appalachians
toward the mid Atlantic. Around 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear may
promote a couple loosely organized clusters with a risk of locally
damaging gusts before weakening into the evening hours.

...Central TX...
As the surface low deepens and moves eastward, the cold front will
continue southward across the TX Panhandle into central TX
overnight. The primary upper trough over the southern Plains will
pass overhead with moderate height falls and cooling aloft.
Low-level isentropic ascent could support a few elevated storms
along and north of the front with damaging wind and hail potential
overnight.

..Lyons/Hart.. 09/23/2025

$$
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