AWUS01 KWNH 251303
FFGMPD
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-251702-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1135
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
903 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025

Areas affected...western/central Pennsylvania, far southeastern Ohio

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 251302Z - 251702Z

Summary...Deep convection should migrate eastward across western
and central Pennsylvania this morning, producing areas of 1-2
inches of rainfall (locally higher). These amounts may cause
flash flooding especially in populated and sensitive areas.

Discussion...Deep convection was being maintained across
southeastern Ohio this morning due to strong forcing for ascent
aloft with mid-level waves traversing the region. Latest MRMS
estimated of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates were noted particularly with a
cluster of cells near Wheeling, WV. These cells were moving
eastward at an appreciable clip, but were still embedded in just
enough instability aloft (around 250 J/kg MUCAPE) and abundant
moisture (1.8 inch PW) to support heavy rainfall. These cells
should impact the Pittsburgh Metro area over the next couple
hours, and if rain rates persist as they are currently, at least a
few instances of flash flooding are possible.

Over time, convection is expected to continue spreading eastward,
with multiple rounds of rain rates of at least 0.25-0.5 inch/hr
expected. Localized areas of hourly rates exceeding 1 inch/hr are
also possible at times. FFG thresholds are in the 1-1.25 inch/hr
range and exceedence is likely on at least an isolated basis.
Flash flooding is possible in this regime - particularly in
low-lying and urbanized areas.

Cook

ATTN...WFO...CLE...CTP...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41577859 40907814 39897891 39338143 40858150
41258051

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