Can the Donald pull a rabbit out of the hat again? [...]
538's model has Biden at a 87% probability of victory as of today. While Biden has multiple paths to victory, Trump has no path if he loses Florida. Right now the RCP average has Biden +3.7 in FL, while the 538 average has him at +4.3.
Can the Donald pull a rabbit out of the hat again? At 13% he has a 1 out of 7.7 chance of doing it.....i.e. a little less than calling the right number on the roll of a die. Certainly possible.
Does Trump not need ALL of Florida, Ohio, NC, Pennsylvania and Arizona
to win ? (to mention only swing states that have substantial numbers of electoral votes ?) I suppose he could lose Florida and win Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota and still get in if he wins all those other ones
I mentioned ?
Can the Donald pull a rabbit out of the hat again? At 13% he has a 1 out of 7.7 chance of doing it.....i.e. a little less than calling the right number on the roll of a die. Certainly possible.
On Wednesday, October 14, 2020 at 12:00:36 PM UTC-4, Al Kamista wrote:
Can the Donald pull a rabbit out of the hat again? At 13% he has a 1 out of 7.7 chance of doing it.....i.e. a little less than calling the right number on the roll of a die. Certainly possible.
For comparison, 87% is the same probability that 538 gives to Liverpool making the R16 in the Champions League.
On Wednesday, October 14, 2020 at 12:00:36 PM UTC-4, Al Kamista wrote:
Can the Donald pull a rabbit out of the hat again? At 13% he has a 1 out of 7.7 chance of doing it.....i.e. a little less than calling the right number on the roll of a die. Certainly possible.
For comparison, 87% is the same probability that 538 gives to Liverpool making the R16 in the Champions League.
538 gives about the same probability to Biden winning as it does to PSG winning the French league. Dunno about you guys, but I feel way more confident about PSG winning the league than I do about Liverpool getting
to the round of 16, and more confident about that than I do about Biden
:-( !
On 2020-10-15, MH <> wrote:
538 gives about the same probability to Biden winning as it does to PSG winning the French league. Dunno about you guys, but I feel way more confident about PSG winning the league than I do about Liverpool getting to the round of 16, and more confident about that than I do about Biden
:-( !
Those of us our age grew up reading about Truman and you probably also
recall him smiling over that front page headline about him having "lost"
On 2020-10-14 10:00, Al Kamista wrote:There are some other winnable permutations for him, but I mentioned FL because it is the biggest electoral swing state. He could lose FL and win by sweeping the Rust Belt states (AND other swing states like AZ and NC), but he's polling even further behind up there so I don't think that's a plausible scenario.
538's model has Biden at a 87% probability of victory as of today. While Biden has multiple paths to victory, Trump has no path if he loses Florida. Right now the RCP average has Biden +3.7 in FL, while the 538 average has him at +4.3.Does Trump not need ALL of Florida, Ohio, NC, Pennsylvania and Arizona
to win ? (to mention only swing states that have substantial numbers of electoral votes ?) I suppose he could lose Florida and win Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota and still get in if he wins all those other ones
I mentioned ?
On the other hand, betting markets are much more cautious, and have Biden's probability at about 67%.In case you want to play an Elections 2020 SophCon, here's a Google Sheet link.
On Thursday, October 15, 2020 at 9:11:51 AM UTC-4, Futbolmetrix wrote:
On the other hand, betting markets are much more cautious, and have Biden's probability at about 67%.
In case you want to play an Elections 2020 SophCon, here's a Google Sheet link.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PqsQHZAugxpgBIE1l7NQNOQrEChAAV4EQyBj4vJXZQc/edit?usp=sharing
Entries in the table are the probabilities that Biden wins each state. Just add your column to the right. Usual SophCon rules apply (Notes: for Maine and Nebraska we are counting the statewide results). Let's say that the deadline for entering the competition is October 20.
Entries so far:https://groups.google.com/d/msg/rec.sport.soccer/FTDU2-vg1jU/wc2squv0AwAJ
---------------
PredictIt (prediction market)
FiveThirtyEight
The Economist
Agnostic
Election 2016 Actual
Futbolmetrix
270ToWin Consensus model
https://groups.google.com/d/msg/rec.sport.soccer/FTDU2-vg1jU/wc2squv0AwAJ
x2
On Thursday, 15 October 2020 17:10:28 UTC+2, Futbolmetrix wrote:
On Thursday, October 15, 2020 at 9:11:51 AM UTC-4, Futbolmetrix wrote:
On the other hand, betting markets are much more cautious, and have Biden's probability at about 67%.
In case you want to play an Elections 2020 SophCon, here's a Google Sheet link.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PqsQHZAugxpgBIE1l7NQNOQrEChAAV4EQyBj4vJXZQc/edit?usp=sharing
Entries in the table are the probabilities that Biden wins each state. Just add your column to the right. Usual SophCon rules apply (Notes: for Maine and Nebraska we are counting the statewide results). Let's say that the deadline for entering the competition is October 20.
Entries so far:
---------------
PredictIt (prediction market)
FiveThirtyEight
The Economist
Agnostic
Election 2016 Actual
Futbolmetrix
270ToWin Consensus model
https://groups.google.com/d/msg/rec.sport.soccer/FTDU2-vg1jU/wc2squv0AwAJ
x2
Ciao,
Werner
On Thursday, October 15, 2020 at 9:11:51 AM UTC-4, Futbolmetrix wrote:
On the other hand, betting markets are much more cautious, and have Biden's probability at about 67%.
In case you want to play an Elections 2020 SophCon, here's a Google Sheet link.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PqsQHZAugxpgBIE1l7NQNOQrEChAAV4EQyBj4vJXZQc/edit?usp=sharing
Entries in the table are the probabilities that Biden wins each state. Just add your column to the right. Usual SophCon rules apply (Notes: for Maine and Nebraska we are counting the statewide results). Let's say that the deadline for entering the competition is October 20.
Entries so far:
---------------
PredictIt (prediction market)
FiveThirtyEight
The Economist
Agnostic
Election 2016 Actual
Futbolmetrix
270ToWin Consensus model
On Thursday, 15 October 2020 17:10:28 UTC+2, Futbolmetrix wrote:
In case you want to play an Elections 2020 SophCon, here's a Google Sheet link.
https://groups.google.com/d/msg/rec.sport.soccer/FTDU2-vg1jU/wc2squv0AwAJ
x2
538 gives about the same probability to Biden winning as it does to PSG winning the French league. Dunno about you guys, but I feel way more confident about PSG winning the league than I do about Liverpool getting
to the round of 16, and more confident about that than I do about Biden
:-( !
538's model has Biden at a 87% probability of victory as of today. While Biden has multiple paths to victory, Trump has no path if he loses Florida. Right now the RCP average has Biden +3.7 in FL, while the 538 average has him at +4.3.
Can the Donald pull a rabbit out of the hat again? At 13% he has a 1 out of 7.7 chance of doing it.....i.e. a little less than calling the right number on the roll of a die. Certainly possible.
On Wednesday, October 14, 2020 at 12:00:36 PM UTC-4, Al Kamista wrote:
538's model has Biden at a 87% probability of victory as of today. While Biden has multiple paths to victory, Trump has no path if he loses Florida. Right now the RCP average has Biden +3.7 in FL, while the 538 average has him at +4.3.
Can the Donald pull a rabbit out of the hat again? At 13% he has a 1 out of 7.7 chance of doing it.....i.e. a little less than calling the right number on the roll of a die. Certainly possible.
The 4 year nightmare is over. Thank heavens.
The scary thing is that almost 70 million Americans still support him. He still wields tremendous political influence and will likely remain a kingmaker within the GOP.
More nastiness lies ahead but it's been a good day for decency.--- SBBSecho 3.06-Win32
The 4 year nightmare is over. Thank heavens.
On Wednesday, October 14, 2020 at 12:00:36 PM UTC-4, Al
Kamista wrote:
538's model has Biden at a 87% probability of victory as of
today. While Biden has multiple paths to victory, Trump has
no path if he loses Florida. Right now the RCP average has
Biden +3.7 in FL, while the 538 average has him at +4.3.
Can the Donald pull a rabbit out of the hat again? At 13% he
has a 1 out of 7.7 chance of doing it.....i.e. a little less
than calling the right number on the roll of a die.
Certainly possible.
The 4 year nightmare is over.
Il se trouve que Al Kamista a formulo :
On Wednesday, October 14, 2020 at 12:00:36 PM UTC-4, Al
Kamista wrote:
538's model has Biden at a 87% probability of victory as of
today. While Biden has multiple paths to victory, Trump has
no path if he loses Florida. Right now the RCP average has
Biden +3.7 in FL, while the 538 average has him at +4.3.
Can the Donald pull a rabbit out of the hat again? At 13% he
has a 1 out of 7.7 chance of doing it.....i.e. a little less
than calling the right number on the roll of a die.
Certainly possible.
The 4 year nightmare is over.
I would say it starts.
And how to be happy to see the most powerful country with a
president elected thanks to massive scam ?
--
Ixion
La VAR est une technologie qui a oto mise
en place pour envoyer Bordeaux en L2.
Il se trouve que Al Kamista a formul|- :What scam is that?
On Wednesday, October 14, 2020 at 12:00:36 PM UTC-4, Al
Kamista wrote:
538's model has Biden at a 87% probability of victory as of
today. While Biden has multiple paths to victory, Trump has
no path if he loses Florida. Right now the RCP average has
Biden +3.7 in FL, while the 538 average has him at +4.3.
Can the Donald pull a rabbit out of the hat again? At 13% he
has a 1 out of 7.7 chance of doing it.....i.e. a little less
than calling the right number on the roll of a die.
Certainly possible.
The 4 year nightmare is over.I would say it starts.
And how to be happy to see the most powerful country with a
president elected thanks to massive scam ?
On Saturday, November 7, 2020 at 6:25:15 PM UTC-5, ixion
martin - GdBx wrote:
Il se trouve que Al Kamista a formulo :
On Wednesday, October 14, 2020 at 12:00:36 PM UTC-4, AlI would say it starts.
Kamista wrote:
538's model has Biden at a 87% probability of victory as
of today. While Biden has multiple paths to victory,
Trump has no path if he loses Florida. Right now the RCP
average has Biden +3.7 in FL, while the 538 average has
him at +4.3.
Can the Donald pull a rabbit out of the hat again? At 13%
he has a 1 out of 7.7 chance of doing it.....i.e. a
little less than calling the right number on the roll of
a die. Certainly possible.
The 4 year nightmare is over.
And how to be happy to see the most powerful country with a
president elected thanks to massive scam ?
What scam is that?
On Saturday, 7 November 2020 22:06:13 UTC+1, Al Kamista wrote:
On Wednesday, October 14, 2020 at 12:00:36 PM UTC-4, Al Kamista wrote:
538's model has Biden at a 87% probability of victory as of today. While Biden has multiple paths to victory, Trump has no path if he loses Florida.
Right now the RCP average has Biden +3.7 in FL, while the 538 average has
him at +4.3.
Can the Donald pull a rabbit out of the hat again? At 13% he has a 1 out of
7.7 chance of doing it.....i.e. a little less than calling the right number
on the roll of a die. Certainly possible.
The 4 year nightmare is over. Thank heavens.
The scary thing is that almost 70 million Americans still support him. He still wields tremendous political influence and will likely remain a kingmaker within the GOP.But almost everywhere GOP candidates did better on the ballot than Trump did.
They lost Arizona and Georgia in large part due to Trump's pointless feuds with
the McCains and the legacy of John Lewis. It might be a slow process, but surely the conviction that Trump has actually been a liability that has cost them years of conservative hegemony will gain momentum in the party? Even Fox
has already gone halfway there.
Al Kamista avait |-nonc|- :If you have a point to make, please make it, rather than act like a creepy and cryptic sage.
On Saturday, November 7, 2020 at 6:25:15 PM UTC-5, ixion
martin - GdBx wrote:
Il se trouve que Al Kamista a formul|- :
On Wednesday, October 14, 2020 at 12:00:36 PM UTC-4, AlI would say it starts.
Kamista wrote:
538's model has Biden at a 87% probability of victory as
of today. While Biden has multiple paths to victory,
Trump has no path if he loses Florida. Right now the RCP
average has Biden +3.7 in FL, while the 538 average has
him at +4.3.
Can the Donald pull a rabbit out of the hat again? At 13%
he has a 1 out of 7.7 chance of doing it.....i.e. a
little less than calling the right number on the roll of
a die. Certainly possible.
The 4 year nightmare is over.
And how to be happy to see the most powerful country with a
president elected thanks to massive scam ?
What scam is that?Open your eyes.
On Sunday, November 8, 2020 at 8:05:18 AM UTC-5, ixion martin - GdBx wrote:
Al Kamista avait |-nonc|- :
On Saturday, November 7, 2020 at 6:25:15 PM UTC-5, ixionOpen your eyes.
martin - GdBx wrote:
Il se trouve que Al Kamista a formul|- :
On Wednesday, October 14, 2020 at 12:00:36 PM UTC-4, AlI would say it starts.
Kamista wrote:
538's model has Biden at a 87% probability of victory as
of today. While Biden has multiple paths to victory,
Trump has no path if he loses Florida. Right now the RCP
average has Biden +3.7 in FL, while the 538 average has
him at +4.3.
Can the Donald pull a rabbit out of the hat again? At 13%
he has a 1 out of 7.7 chance of doing it.....i.e. a
little less than calling the right number on the roll of
a die. Certainly possible.
The 4 year nightmare is over.
And how to be happy to see the most powerful country with a
president elected thanks to massive scam ?
What scam is that?
If you have a point to make, please make it, rather than act like a
creepy and cryptic sage.
In article <7b4f66ee-ff0a-4ea2...@googlegroups.com>,YEAH,INNIT THE USA FER FUCKS SAKE HOLE CUNTRY INNIT ILLEGAL FER FUCKS SAKE BUNCH OF TROGS INNIT! OPE THEY KILL EACH OTHER DE FUCKIN USELESS AHOLES.
Al Kamista <alka...@hotmail.com> wrote:
On Sunday, November 8, 2020 at 8:05:18 AM UTC-5, ixion martin - GdBx wrote: >> Al Kamista avait |-nonc|- :
On Saturday, November 7, 2020 at 6:25:15 PM UTC-5, ixionOpen your eyes.
martin - GdBx wrote:
Il se trouve que Al Kamista a formul|- :
On Wednesday, October 14, 2020 at 12:00:36 PM UTC-4, AlI would say it starts.
Kamista wrote:
538's model has Biden at a 87% probability of victory as
of today. While Biden has multiple paths to victory,
Trump has no path if he loses Florida. Right now the RCP
average has Biden +3.7 in FL, while the 538 average has
him at +4.3.
Can the Donald pull a rabbit out of the hat again? At 13%
he has a 1 out of 7.7 chance of doing it.....i.e. a
little less than calling the right number on the roll of
a die. Certainly possible.
The 4 year nightmare is over.
And how to be happy to see the most powerful country with a
president elected thanks to massive scam ?
What scam is that?
If you have a point to make, please make it, rather than act like aIs someone saying illegal ballots processed?
creepy and cryptic sage.
----- SBBSecho 3.06-Win32
Member - Liberal International This is doctor@@nl2k.ab.ca Ici doctor@@nl2k.ab.ca
Yahweh, Queen & country!Never Satan President Republic!Beware AntiChrist rising!
Look at Psalms 14 and 53 on Atheism https://www.empire.kred/ROOTNK?t=94a1f39b
2020/11/11 LEst we forget!
In article <7b4f66ee-ff0a-4ea2...@googlegroups.com>,I think that's what he's implying.
Al Kamista <alka...@hotmail.com> wrote:
On Sunday, November 8, 2020 at 8:05:18 AM UTC-5, ixion martin - GdBx wrote: >> Al Kamista avait |-nonc|- :
On Saturday, November 7, 2020 at 6:25:15 PM UTC-5, ixionOpen your eyes.
martin - GdBx wrote:
Il se trouve que Al Kamista a formul|- :
On Wednesday, October 14, 2020 at 12:00:36 PM UTC-4, AlI would say it starts.
Kamista wrote:
538's model has Biden at a 87% probability of victory as
of today. While Biden has multiple paths to victory,
Trump has no path if he loses Florida. Right now the RCP
average has Biden +3.7 in FL, while the 538 average has
him at +4.3.
Can the Donald pull a rabbit out of the hat again? At 13%
he has a 1 out of 7.7 chance of doing it.....i.e. a
little less than calling the right number on the roll of
a die. Certainly possible.
The 4 year nightmare is over.
And how to be happy to see the most powerful country with a
president elected thanks to massive scam ?
What scam is that?
If you have a point to make, please make it, rather than act like aIs someone saying illegal ballots processed?
creepy and cryptic sage.
On Sunday, November 8, 2020 at 8:12:17 AM UTC-5, The Doctor wrote:I think the "crackpots" are the people who think THE USA is this virtuous country that does everything legally and morally, everything about the country is exploitative, dirty and illegal. This is a country that has its so called greatness based upon illegally taking people in chains from another land and making them work for them for free. Yeah, if i have a company and dont need to pay my workers, it is gonna do great. This is a country that creates wars in foreign lands in order to exploit those people. This is a nation of people that can not produce a proper vehicle, but produces unlimited bombs and fighter jests and missiles and what not, while over half the population have no healthcare, improper nutrition and an education system ranking below Hati. So yeah, I certainly except this election and every election the backwards idiots have ever run to be crooked.
In article <7b4f66ee-ff0a-4ea2...@googlegroups.com>,
Al Kamista <alka...@hotmail.com> wrote:
On Sunday, November 8, 2020 at 8:05:18 AM UTC-5, ixion martin - GdBx wrote:
Al Kamista avait |-nonc|- :
On Saturday, November 7, 2020 at 6:25:15 PM UTC-5, ixionOpen your eyes.
martin - GdBx wrote:
Il se trouve que Al Kamista a formul|- :
On Wednesday, October 14, 2020 at 12:00:36 PM UTC-4, AlI would say it starts.
Kamista wrote:
538's model has Biden at a 87% probability of victory as
of today. While Biden has multiple paths to victory,
Trump has no path if he loses Florida. Right now the RCP
average has Biden +3.7 in FL, while the 538 average has
him at +4.3.
Can the Donald pull a rabbit out of the hat again? At 13%
he has a 1 out of 7.7 chance of doing it.....i.e. a
little less than calling the right number on the roll of
a die. Certainly possible.
The 4 year nightmare is over.
And how to be happy to see the most powerful country with a
president elected thanks to massive scam ?
What scam is that?
I think that's what he's implying.If you have a point to make, please make it, rather than act like a >creepy and cryptic sage.Is someone saying illegal ballots processed?
Isn't he the same guy who thinks that the UEFA referees have a conspiracy against French teams? At least he's consistent in being a crackpot.
On Saturday, November 7, 2020 at 4:20:33 PM UTC-5, Werner Pichler wrote:
On Saturday, 7 November 2020 22:06:13 UTC+1, Al Kamista wrote:
On Wednesday, October 14, 2020 at 12:00:36 PM UTC-4, Al Kamista wrote:
538's model has Biden at a 87% probability of victory as of today. While Biden has multiple paths to victory, Trump has no path if he loses Florida. Right now the RCP average has Biden +3.7 in FL, while the 538 average has him at +4.3.
Can the Donald pull a rabbit out of the hat again? At 13% he has a 1 out of 7.7 chance of doing it.....i.e. a little less than calling the right number on the roll of a die. Certainly possible.
The 4 year nightmare is over. Thank heavens.
The scary thing is that almost 70 million Americans still support him. He
still wields tremendous political influence and will likely remain a kingmaker within the GOP.
But almost everywhere GOP candidates did better on the ballot than Trump did. They lost Arizona and Georgia in large part due to Trump's pointless feuds with the McCains and the legacy of John Lewis. It might be a slow process, but surely the conviction that Trump has actually been a liability that has cost them years of conservative hegemony will gain momentum in the party? Even Fox has already gone halfway there.
I hope you are right, but he did secure more votes for himself than he did in 2016, which was kind of shocking. It's hard to read the situation.
On Sunday, November 8, 2020 at 9:00:06 AM UTC-5, alka...@hotmail.com wrote:The fact that the US is a deeply hypocritical country that has exploited people domestically and internationally for its own selfish gains for centuries is without question. That it could have people tampering with its elections is also not out of the realm of possibility. But the country's dubious moral compass is *not evidence* that this election was tampered with. And if there's no evidence then it's just bullshit peddled by a pathologically-lying narcissistic conman, and lapped up by his gullible supporters and the general low-IQ-conspiracy-theorist-at-large posse.
On Sunday, November 8, 2020 at 8:12:17 AM UTC-5, The Doctor wrote:
In article <7b4f66ee-ff0a-4ea2...@googlegroups.com>,
Al Kamista <alka...@hotmail.com> wrote:
On Sunday, November 8, 2020 at 8:05:18 AM UTC-5, ixion martin - GdBx wrote:
Al Kamista avait |-nonc|- :
On Saturday, November 7, 2020 at 6:25:15 PM UTC-5, ixionOpen your eyes.
martin - GdBx wrote:
Il se trouve que Al Kamista a formul|- :
On Wednesday, October 14, 2020 at 12:00:36 PM UTC-4, AlI would say it starts.
Kamista wrote:
538's model has Biden at a 87% probability of victory as
of today. While Biden has multiple paths to victory,
Trump has no path if he loses Florida. Right now the RCP
average has Biden +3.7 in FL, while the 538 average has
him at +4.3.
Can the Donald pull a rabbit out of the hat again? At 13%
he has a 1 out of 7.7 chance of doing it.....i.e. a
little less than calling the right number on the roll of
a die. Certainly possible.
The 4 year nightmare is over.
And how to be happy to see the most powerful country with a
president elected thanks to massive scam ?
What scam is that?
I think that's what he's implying.If you have a point to make, please make it, rather than act like a >creepy and cryptic sage.Is someone saying illegal ballots processed?
Isn't he the same guy who thinks that the UEFA referees have a conspiracy against French teams? At least he's consistent in being a crackpot.I think the "crackpots" are the people who think THE USA is this virtuous country that does everything legally and morally, everything about the country is exploitative, dirty and illegal. This is a country that has its so called greatness based upon illegally taking people in chains from another land and making them work for them for free. Yeah, if i have a company and dont need to pay my workers, it is gonna do great. This is a country that creates wars in foreign lands in order to exploit those people. This is a nation of people that can not produce a proper vehicle, but produces unlimited bombs and fighter jests and missiles and what not, while over half the population have no healthcare, improper nutrition and an education system ranking below Hati. So yeah, I certainly except this election and every election the backwards idiots have ever run to be crooked.
On Sunday, 8 November 2020 14:07:12 UTC+1, Al Kamista wrote:If there's someone I despise almost as much as Trump in the American political theater, it's Rudy Giuliani. What happened to this guy? He was an admirable crime fighter who brought down the New York Mafia (as an Italian-American he said he felt it was his patriotic duty to redeem the image of Italian-Americans) and showed great leadership in the direct aftermath of 9/11, but since then he has slowly descended into desperate sycophantism to cling on to any form of power and relevance that he can get his claws on. A real life Gollum if there ever was one.
On Saturday, November 7, 2020 at 4:20:33 PM UTC-5, Werner Pichler wrote:
On Saturday, 7 November 2020 22:06:13 UTC+1, Al Kamista wrote:
On Wednesday, October 14, 2020 at 12:00:36 PM UTC-4, Al Kamista wrote:
538's model has Biden at a 87% probability of victory as of today. While Biden has multiple paths to victory, Trump has no path if he loses Florida. Right now the RCP average has Biden +3.7 in FL, while the 538 average has him at +4.3.
Can the Donald pull a rabbit out of the hat again? At 13% he has a 1 out of 7.7 chance of doing it.....i.e. a little less than calling the
right number on the roll of a die. Certainly possible.
The 4 year nightmare is over. Thank heavens.
The scary thing is that almost 70 million Americans still support him. He
still wields tremendous political influence and will likely remain a kingmaker within the GOP.
But almost everywhere GOP candidates did better on the ballot than Trump did. They lost Arizona and Georgia in large part due to Trump's pointless
feuds with the McCains and the legacy of John Lewis. It might be a slow process, but surely the conviction that Trump has actually been a liability
that has cost them years of conservative hegemony will gain momentum in the
party? Even Fox has already gone halfway there.
I hope you are right, but he did secure more votes for himself than he did inAnd galvanized an even larger percentage to get out and vote against him. Every
2016, which was kind of shocking. It's hard to read the situation.
action has its equal opposite reaction, and all that.
I also think Giuliani's bizarre Four Seasons Landscaping press conference could
be a watershed moment. To have exposed yourself, entirely through your own fault, to this much ridicule could be a death blow. The entire case falls apart
when presented with this much bumbling incompetence. I know people have
made fun of Trump for ages and with little effect, but this feels different.
On Sunday, 8 November 2020 14:07:12 UTC+1, Al Kamista wrote:
On Saturday, November 7, 2020 at 4:20:33 PM UTC-5, Werner Pichler wrote:
On Saturday, 7 November 2020 22:06:13 UTC+1, Al Kamista wrote:
On Wednesday, October 14, 2020 at 12:00:36 PM UTC-4, Al Kamista wrote:
538's model has Biden at a 87% probability of victory as of today. While Biden has multiple paths to victory, Trump has no path if he loses Florida. Right now the RCP average has Biden +3.7 in FL, while the 538 average has him at +4.3.
Can the Donald pull a rabbit out of the hat again? At 13% he has a 1 out of 7.7 chance of doing it.....i.e. a little less than calling the
right number on the roll of a die. Certainly possible.
The 4 year nightmare is over. Thank heavens.
The scary thing is that almost 70 million Americans still support him. He
still wields tremendous political influence and will likely remain a kingmaker within the GOP.
But almost everywhere GOP candidates did better on the ballot than Trump did. They lost Arizona and Georgia in large part due to Trump's pointless
feuds with the McCains and the legacy of John Lewis. It might be a slow process, but surely the conviction that Trump has actually been a liability
that has cost them years of conservative hegemony will gain momentum in the
party? Even Fox has already gone halfway there.
I hope you are right, but he did secure more votes for himself than he did inAnd galvanized an even larger percentage to get out and vote against him. Every
2016, which was kind of shocking. It's hard to read the situation.
action has its equal opposite reaction, and all that.
I also think Giuliani's bizarre Four Seasons Landscaping press conference could
be a watershed moment. To have exposed yourself, entirely through your own fault, to this much ridicule could be a death blow. The entire case falls apart
when presented with this much bumbling incompetence. I know people have
made fun of Trump for ages and with little effect, but this feels different.
Ciao,
Werner
On Sunday, November 8, 2020 at 9:35:09 AM UTC-5, Werner Pichler wrote:
On Sunday, 8 November 2020 14:07:12 UTC+1, Al Kamista wrote:
On Saturday, November 7, 2020 at 4:20:33 PM UTC-5, Werner Pichler wrote:
On Saturday, 7 November 2020 22:06:13 UTC+1, Al Kamista wrote:
On Wednesday, October 14, 2020 at 12:00:36 PM UTC-4, Al Kamista wrote:
538's model has Biden at a 87% probability of victory as of today. While Biden has multiple paths to victory, Trump has no path if he loses Florida. Right now the RCP average has Biden +3.7 in FL, while the 538 average has him at +4.3.
Can the Donald pull a rabbit out of the hat again? At 13% he has a 1 out of 7.7 chance of doing it.....i.e. a little less than calling the right number on the roll of a die. Certainly possible.
The 4 year nightmare is over. Thank heavens.
The scary thing is that almost 70 million Americans still support him. He still wields tremendous political influence and will likely remain a kingmaker within the GOP.
But almost everywhere GOP candidates did better on the ballot than Trump did. They lost Arizona and Georgia in large part due to Trump's pointless feuds with the McCains and the legacy of John Lewis. It might be a slow process, but surely the conviction that Trump has actually been a liability that has cost them years of conservative hegemony will gain momentum in the party? Even Fox has already gone halfway there.
I hope you are right, but he did secure more votes for himself than he did in 2016, which was kind of shocking. It's hard to read the situation.
And galvanized an even larger percentage to get out and vote against him. Every action has its equal opposite reaction, and all that.
I also think Giuliani's bizarre Four Seasons Landscaping press conference could be a watershed moment. To have exposed yourself, entirely through your own fault, to this much ridicule could be a death blow. The entire case falls apart when presented with this much bumbling incompetence. I know people have made fun of Trump for ages and with little effect, but this feels different.
even i have a tough time believing that story (the four seasons hotel/garden centre mixup) was not made up by the "libtard media" making the old conservative idiots look like clowns. Was that really a thing that happened and not an SNL skit last night?
On Sunday, November 8, 2020 at 8:12:17 AM UTC-5, The Doctor
wrote:
In article <7b4f66ee-ff0a-4ea2...@googlegroups.com>,
Al Kamista <alka...@hotmail.com> wrote:
On Sunday, November 8, 2020 at 8:05:18 AM UTC-5, ixion
martin - GdBx wrote:
Al Kamista avait |-nonc|- :
On Saturday, November 7, 2020 at 6:25:15 PM UTC-5, ixionOpen your eyes.
martin - GdBx wrote:
Il se trouve que Al Kamista a formul|- :
On Wednesday, October 14, 2020 at 12:00:36 PM UTC-4, AlI would say it starts.
Kamista wrote:
538's model has Biden at a 87% probability of victory
as of today. While Biden has multiple paths to
victory, Trump has no path if he loses Florida. Right
now the RCP average has Biden +3.7 in FL, while the
538 average has him at +4.3.
Can the Donald pull a rabbit out of the hat again? At
13% he has a 1 out of 7.7 chance of doing it.....i.e.
a little less than calling the right number on the
roll of a die. Certainly possible.
The 4 year nightmare is over.
And how to be happy to see the most powerful country
with a president elected thanks to massive scam ?
What scam is that?
If you have a point to make, please make it, rather than
act like a creepy and cryptic sage.
Is someone saying illegal ballots processed?
I think that's what he's implying.
Isn't he the same guy who thinks that the UEFA referees have
a conspiracy against French teams? At least he's consistent
in being a crackpot.
On Sunday, 8 November 2020 16:06:20 UTC+1, Binder Dundat wrote:
On Sunday, November 8, 2020 at 9:35:09 AM UTC-5, Werner Pichler wrote:
On Sunday, 8 November 2020 14:07:12 UTC+1, Al Kamista wrote:
On Saturday, November 7, 2020 at 4:20:33 PM UTC-5, Werner Pichler wrote:
On Saturday, 7 November 2020 22:06:13 UTC+1, Al Kamista wrote:
On Wednesday, October 14, 2020 at 12:00:36 PM UTC-4, Al Kamista wrote:
538's model has Biden at a 87% probability of victory as of today.
While Biden has multiple paths to victory, Trump has no path if he
loses Florida. Right now the RCP average has Biden +3.7 in FL, while the 538 average has him at +4.3.
Can the Donald pull a rabbit out of the hat again? At 13% he has a
1 out of 7.7 chance of doing it.....i.e. a little less than calling
the right number on the roll of a die. Certainly possible.
The 4 year nightmare is over. Thank heavens.
The scary thing is that almost 70 million Americans still support him. He still wields tremendous political influence and will likely
remain a kingmaker within the GOP.
But almost everywhere GOP candidates did better on the ballot than Trump did. They lost Arizona and Georgia in large part due to Trump's
pointless feuds with the McCains and the legacy of John Lewis. It might
be a slow process, but surely the conviction that Trump has actually been a liability that has cost them years of conservative hegemony will
gain momentum in the party? Even Fox has already gone halfway there.
I hope you are right, but he did secure more votes for himself than he did in 2016, which was kind of shocking. It's hard to read the situation.
And galvanized an even larger percentage to get out and vote against him.
Every action has its equal opposite reaction, and all that.
I also think Giuliani's bizarre Four Seasons Landscaping press conference
could be a watershed moment. To have exposed yourself, entirely through your own fault, to this much ridicule could be a death blow. The entire case falls apart when presented with this much bumbling incompetence. I know people have made fun of Trump for ages and with little effect, but this feels different.
even i have a tough time believing that story (the four seasons hotel/gardenIt is very much true. Not even Sacha Baron Cohen could have come up with something like this.
centre mixup) was not made up by the "libtard media" making the old conservative idiots look like clowns. Was that really a thing that happened
and not an SNL skit last night?
https://twitter.com/_RichardHall/status/1325088995773132803
Ciao,
Werner
Il se trouve que Al Kamista a formul|- :Biden is no inspiration and a pure establishment candidate, but if at the very least he rejoins global efforts to combat climate change, doesn't put little children in cages, and raises taxes on the richest Americans, that will be progress.
On Sunday, November 8, 2020 at 8:12:17 AM UTC-5, The Doctor
wrote:
In article <7b4f66ee-ff0a-4ea2...@googlegroups.com>,
Al Kamista <alka...@hotmail.com> wrote:
On Sunday, November 8, 2020 at 8:05:18 AM UTC-5, ixion
martin - GdBx wrote:
Al Kamista avait |-nonc|- :
On Saturday, November 7, 2020 at 6:25:15 PM UTC-5, ixionOpen your eyes.
martin - GdBx wrote:
Il se trouve que Al Kamista a formul|- :
On Wednesday, October 14, 2020 at 12:00:36 PM UTC-4, AlI would say it starts.
Kamista wrote:
538's model has Biden at a 87% probability of victory
as of today. While Biden has multiple paths to
victory, Trump has no path if he loses Florida. Right
now the RCP average has Biden +3.7 in FL, while the
538 average has him at +4.3.
Can the Donald pull a rabbit out of the hat again? At
13% he has a 1 out of 7.7 chance of doing it.....i.e.
a little less than calling the right number on the
roll of a die. Certainly possible.
The 4 year nightmare is over.
And how to be happy to see the most powerful country
with a president elected thanks to massive scam ?
What scam is that?
If you have a point to make, please make it, rather than
act like a creepy and cryptic sage.
Is someone saying illegal ballots processed?
I think that's what he's implying.
Isn't he the same guy who thinks that the UEFA referees haveYes I am, because I open my eyes. Watch Chelsea-Rennes from
a conspiracy against French teams? At least he's consistent
in being a crackpot.
last week, a new example of my madness, I guess.
After all, I don't care about US scams, it is not my country.
But I have some difficulties to see why a guy who confuse his
children and grandchildren may mean the end of a nightmare. At
least, it is the beginning of another one.
But I said it, I don't care, I only hope he will leave us
alone.
On Sunday, November 8, 2020 at 4:46:01 PM UTC-5, ixion martin - GdBx wrote:I generally root for the most moderate guy.
Il se trouve que Al Kamista a formul|- :
On Sunday, November 8, 2020 at 8:12:17 AM UTC-5, The Doctor
wrote:
In article <7b4f66ee-ff0a-4ea2...@googlegroups.com>,
Al Kamista <alka...@hotmail.com> wrote:
On Sunday, November 8, 2020 at 8:05:18 AM UTC-5, ixion
martin - GdBx wrote:
Al Kamista avait |-nonc|- :
On Saturday, November 7, 2020 at 6:25:15 PM UTC-5, ixionOpen your eyes.
martin - GdBx wrote:
Il se trouve que Al Kamista a formul|- :
On Wednesday, October 14, 2020 at 12:00:36 PM UTC-4, AlI would say it starts.
Kamista wrote:
538's model has Biden at a 87% probability of victory
as of today. While Biden has multiple paths to
victory, Trump has no path if he loses Florida. Right
now the RCP average has Biden +3.7 in FL, while the
538 average has him at +4.3.
Can the Donald pull a rabbit out of the hat again? At
13% he has a 1 out of 7.7 chance of doing it.....i.e.
a little less than calling the right number on the
roll of a die. Certainly possible.
The 4 year nightmare is over.
And how to be happy to see the most powerful country
with a president elected thanks to massive scam ?
What scam is that?
If you have a point to make, please make it, rather than
act like a creepy and cryptic sage.
Is someone saying illegal ballots processed?
I think that's what he's implying.
Isn't he the same guy who thinks that the UEFA referees haveYes I am, because I open my eyes. Watch Chelsea-Rennes from
a conspiracy against French teams? At least he's consistent
in being a crackpot.
last week, a new example of my madness, I guess.
After all, I don't care about US scams, it is not my country.
But I have some difficulties to see why a guy who confuse his
children and grandchildren may mean the end of a nightmare. At
least, it is the beginning of another one.
But I said it, I don't care, I only hope he will leave usBiden is no inspiration and a pure establishment candidate, but if at the very least he rejoins global efforts to combat climate change, doesn't put little children in cages, and raises taxes on the richest Americans, that will be progress.
alone.
And you needn't worry about France. If anyone, it's third world peoples that bear the biggest brunt of American foreign policy.
I generally root for the most moderate guy.
I suspect the rushing of the confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett to the
Supreme Court helped Trump to lose. If the balance of the Court were
on the balance, I guess more Republicans would have the incentive to
put up with the orange guy.
On 2020-11-10, Jesus Petry <jesus.petry@gmail.com> wrote:
I generally root for the most moderate guy.
That's how we Oregon republicans used to do it, way back when. For me, before Reagan.
I suspect the rushing of the confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett to the
Supreme Court helped Trump to lose. If the balance of the Court were
on the balance, I guess more Republicans would have the incentive to
put up with the orange guy.
She was put there in the first place to (1) ditch Obamacare and
ready to support Trump in a legal takeover should he lose.
It should be pretty obvious that the Trump appointees should recuse(*) themselves from the case due to conflict of interest, but I also think
that lot is far too shameless for such a thing.
(*) "recuse" is a legal term for someone (judge, etc) to stay out of a decision due to present or prior relationship to one of the parties.
There's plenty detail on it on the en.wikipedia page!
On 2020-11-10 06:13, Bruce Scott wrote:[Barrett]
She was put there in the first place to (1) ditch Obamacare and
This is far from a given though. It has been through a few challenges already, no ? With conservative judges (at least Roberts) upholding it.
The current challenge is about the "mandate" part, I gather, which is
moot point since the republicans set the fine for not getting insurance
at Zero dollars.
(2) be
ready to support Trump in a legal takeover should he lose.
Again, I am reasonably optimistic that this will not happen, since USans
do mostly have a sense of fair play, and several republicans have spoken
out against this. They also have to tread delicately with two run-off elections to come in January in Georgia.
If Biden were smart he might appoint Collins or Romney to his cabinet, setting up some special elections fairly soon. The Maine one should be winnable without Collins there.
On 2020-11-11, MH <MHno...@ucalgary.ca> wrote:Not all. Christie and some others "within ranks" have spoken out against this facade. Also, there's a distinction between those openly alleging fraud (like Graham and Cruz) and those playing it safe like McConnell who are instead saying that Trump has a legal right to challenge it in court, which while subtly insidious, is factually correct.
On 2020-11-10 06:13, Bruce Scott wrote:[Barrett]
She was put there in the first place to (1) ditch Obamacare and
This is far from a given though. It has been through a few challenges already, no ? With conservative judges (at least Roberts) upholding it. The current challenge is about the "mandate" part, I gather, which isYes but with some argument I don't care to go through they are now arguing that this provision makes it unconstitutional. On the other hand, the SC
moot point since the republicans set the fine for not getting insurance
at Zero dollars.
has hinted (yesterday) they may not play along.
(2) be
ready to support Trump in a legal takeover should he lose.
Again, I am reasonably optimistic that this will not happen, since USans do mostly have a sense of fair play, and several republicans have spokenmostly (1) ex types (eg, GWB) and (2) those already opposed to Trump
others seem to be afraid to break ranks
On 2020-11-10 06:13, Bruce Scott wrote:
On 2020-11-10, Jesus Petry <jesus...@gmail.com> wrote:
I generally root for the most moderate guy.
That's how we Oregon republicans used to do it, way back when. For me, before Reagan.
I suspect the rushing of the confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett to the
Supreme Court helped Trump to lose. If the balance of the Court were
on the balance, I guess more Republicans would have the incentive to
put up with the orange guy.
She was put there in the first place to (1) ditch Obamacare andThis is far from a given though. It has been through a few challenges already, no ? With conservative judges (at least Roberts) upholding it.
The current challenge is about the "mandate" part, I gather, which is
moot point since the republicans set the fine for not getting insurance
at Zero dollars.
(2) be
ready to support Trump in a legal takeover should he lose.Again, I am reasonably optimistic that this will not happen, since USans
do mostly have a sense of fair play,
out against this. They also have to tread delicately with two run-off elections to come in January in Georgia.
If Biden were smart he might appoint Collins or Romney to his cabinet, setting up some special elections fairly soon. The Maine one should be winnable without Collins there.
It should be pretty obvious that the Trump appointees should recuse(*) themselves from the case due to conflict of interest, but I also think that lot is far too shameless for such a thing.
(*) "recuse" is a legal term for someone (judge, etc) to stay out of a decision due to present or prior relationship to one of the parties. There's plenty detail on it on the en.wikipedia page!
Not all. Christie and some others "within ranks" have spoken out
against this facade. Also, there's a distinction between those openly
alleging fraud (like Graham and Cruz) and those playing it safe like McConnell who are instead saying that Trump has a legal right to
challenge it in court, which while subtly insidious, is factually
correct.
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